Erdo the new pope. Erdo will be the next pope. According to the world’s most influential media outlets, Cardinal Péter Erdő (correctly spelled like this) is widely regarded as the leading contender. His name appears on every shortlist of papal candidates, featured prominently in publications from across the globe.
The Vatican watchers did not (again, as they did at the penultimate conclave in 2013) get it right. New pope became Robert Prevost, who forecasters said was number 8 on the list of contenders.
These results are based on our analysis of fifteen major publications — including two Italian dailies, two from the UK, and others from the Philippines, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico and Congo, as well as leading newspapers from France, Germany, and Spain, along with two prominent Catholic outlets from key Catholic countries. We also considered the expertise of the Vatican watchers at these publications.
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Profil of the new pope
“The profile of a shepherd Pope, a teacher of humanity, capable of embodying the face of a Samaritan Church, close to the needs and wounds of humanity, was outlined. In times marked by wars, violence and strong polarization, a strong need is felt for a spiritual guide who offers mercy, synodality and hope”.
(From: statement after the 12th and final Congregation of Cardinals, May 6, 2025 – one day before the beginning of the 2025 Conclave)
Check out our article on the top 8 candidates for the papacy. Erdo and runner ups Parolin, Tagle and Zuppi feature prominently on our list – a ranking we first published back in 2021. Since then, they have never dropped off.
Top list: Erdo the new pope
- 1. Erdo (14,5)
- 2. Parolin (14)
- 3. Tagle (13)
- 4. Zuppi (13)
- 5. Ambongo Besungu (12,5)
- 6. Pizzaballa (10)
- 7. Grech (10)
- 8. Prevost (8)
- 9. Aveline (5)
- 10. Tolentino (5)
- 11. Sarah (5)
- 12. Turkson (5)
- 13. Arborelius (5)
The scoring system we use is simple: one point for each person mentioned by any of these 15 outlets. Two of them used a ranking system, listing first and second-tier candidates. Cardinals listed on these sub-lists received half a point.
Erdo the new pope: Outsiders
Not all of the fifteen newspapers listed the ‘well-known’ candidates. Points were also awarded to cardinals who, realistically, have little chance. For example, Dutch Cardinal Eijk received 2 points, both of them from more conservative media. The same applied to votes for Mueller (Germany) and Burke (USA, 4 points).
Erdo the new pope: Left versus right
It all comes also down to where a newspaper’s focus lies. Some media outlets are conservative and tend to lean to include also more ‘right wing’ candidates. Those on the opposite side of the spectrum often feature more ‘left-leaning’ candidates on their lists.
For instance, progressive candidates like Hollerich (Luxembourg) and Omella (Spain) are prominently featured in the lists of more liberal media, while they may not be as strongly represented in conservative outlets.
Also read: what happenes in the Conclave?
Erdo the new pope: last minute candidates
A few cardinals are mentioned only once, including Cardinal David from the Philippines, who was listed by El Universal. This name suddenly also appeared in the Italian press just a day before the Conclave began. It’s possible that this mention was driven by those with less favorable intentions towards Filipino Cardinal Tagle, who is considered a great potential contender for the papacy.
Erdo the new pope: European vs. American focus
What’s also notable is that European newspapers, in general, included more European candidates on their lists than, for example, Latin American outlets. For instance, French and Italian newspapers often mention Aveline from France. On the other side of the Atlantic, the names listed tend to be—honestly—quite patriotic. O Globo, for example, prominently features Brazilian cardinals like Scherer and Steiner.
But, who knows? We could be completely off the mark, and the next pope might very well be African-American Cardinal Wilton Gregory, the Archbishop of Washington (emeritus since January 2025), as listed by one outlet.
A note on the final result (‘Erdo the new pope’):
Aside from (arch)conservative cardinals like Burke and Eijk, Erdő is essentially the only serious conservative candidate. That may have contributed to his appearance on every shortlist. In contrast, there are many candidates who share similarities with the more progressive Pope Francis, which may have diluted their individual rankings.
